Concepts of Forecasting and Predictions

Dr. Aly, O.
Computer Science

Purpose:

The purpose of this discussion is to research the concepts of forecasting and predictions in a business or innovation context. The discussion will identify and document one infamous prediction that actually came true.

Discussion

Prediction:  The goal of prediction is to obtain a significant estimate of what the value of the dependent variable will be by known independent variable value (Bateh & Heyliger, 2014).  However, as indicated in (Garrett, 2013), the prediction is rough and is subject to a large error of the estimate.  Prediction means different things to different technical disciplines and different people (Peterson, Cumming, & Carpenter, 2003).  The prediction is understood to be the best possible estimate of future conditions (Peterson et al., 2003).   The less sensitive the prediction is to drivers the better (Peterson et al., 2003).  Whereas scientists understand that predictions are probabilistic conditional statements, non-scientists often understand them as things that will happen no matter what they do (Peterson et al., 2003).

The historical and technological records contain various and numerous examples of predictions that came true (Dreher, n.d.; Sterbenz, 2013).  Some of these predictions that came true include the following as indicated in (Dreher, n.d.; Sterbenz, 2013). 

• Jules Verne predicted a man on the moon in 1865.
• Ray Bradbury foretold earbuds in 1953.
• Edward Bellamy envisaged the debit card in 1888.
• Robert Boyle predicted organ transplants in the 1660s.
• Arthur C. Clark imagined the iPad in 1968.
• Nikola Tesla predicted personal wireless devices in 1909.
• H. G. Wells predicted the atomic bomb in 1914.
• Roger Ebert predicted video-on-demand services Netflix and Hulu in 1987.
• Isaac Asimov predicted the use of the Internet for learning in 1988.

For this discussion, the focus is on the prediction of Nikola Tesla for the personal wireless devices in 1909.  

Nikola Tesla’s Prediction of Personal Wireless Devices in 1909:  In 1891, Nikola Tesla developed a type of resonant transformer called the Tesla coil, which achieved a major breakthrough in his work by transmitting 100 million volts of electric power wirelessly over a distance of 26 miles to light up a bank of 200 light bulbs and run one electric motor (Bhutkar & Sapre, 2009).  Tesla claimed to have achieved 95% efficiency, but the technology had to be shelved because the effects of transmitting such high voltages in electric arcs would have been disastrous to humans and electrical equipment in the vicinity (Bhutkar & Sapre, 2009).  This technology has been neglected in obscurity for several years. However, the advent of portable devices such as mobiles, laptops, smartphones, MP3 players brought this technology into life and Tesla’s prediction of the wireless in 1909, which came true. 

Tesla was called as a visionary as well as “charlatan” (Lumpkins, 2014).  However, many attest that his early vision of alternating current transmission systems and wireless power were the precursors of today’s energy-harvesting technology (Lumpkins, 2014).  He is regarded as a prolific inventor (Marincic, 1982).  Tesla believed that by transmitting waves of alternating radio-frequency (RF) energy, devices such as electric vehicles and even flying dirigibles, could reuse this energy for consistent operation (Lumpkins, 2014).   Tesla experimented with large-scale wireless power distribution by building the world’s first power station in Long Island, New York (Xie, Shi, Hou, & Lou, 2013).  He planned to use the power station called Wardenclyffe Tower to transmit not only signals but also wireless electricity (Xie et al., 2013).  However, due to its large electric fields, which significantly diminished the power transfer efficiency, Tesla’s invention was not successful and was never put into practical use (Xie et al., 2013).

The field of wireless power has been growing over the past sixty years, from conceptual ideas such as collecting solar power in space and “beaming” it back to Earth-based collectors, like a Dyson sphere, to the reality of charging Philips Sonicare electric toothbrush with an inductive charger (Lumpkins, 2014).  The impact of the Tesla’s innovation and prediction is observed in every minute of our lives.

References

Bateh, J., & Heyliger, W. (2014). Academic Administrator Leadership Styles and the Impact on Faculty Job Satisfaction. Journal of leadership Education, 13(3).

Bhutkar, R., & Sapre, S. (2009). Wireless energy transfer using magnetic resonance. Paper presented at the Computer and Electrical Engineering, 2009. ICCEE’09. Second International Conference On.

Dreher, B. (n.d.). 9 Incredible Historical Predictions That Came True. Retrieved Jan 27, 2018, from https://www.rd.com/culture/historical-predictions-that-came-true/.

Garrett, M. (2013). Traditional Forecasting Leads to Traditional Results … Failure. Retrieved Jan 27, 2018, from https://www.forbes.com/sites/matthewgarrett/2013/08/22/traditional-forecasting-leads-to-traditional-results-failure/#4a0c95e0bebc, Forbes.

Lumpkins, W. (2014). Nikola Tesla’s Dream Realized: Wireless power energy harvesting. IEEE Consumer Electronics Magazine, 3(1), 39-42.

Marincic, A. (1982). Nikola Tesla and the wireless transmission of energy. IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems(10), 4064-4068.

Peterson, G. D., Cumming, G. S., & Carpenter, S. R. (2003). Scenario Planning: a Tool for Conservation in an Uncertain World. Conservation Biology, 17(2), 358-366.

Sterbenz, C. (2013). 16 Of The Most Impressive Predictions Of All Time. Retrieved Jan 27, 2018, from http://www.businessinsider.com/predictions-from-the-past-that-came-true-2013-9.

Xie, L., Shi, Y., Hou, Y. T., & Lou, A. (2013). Wireless power transfer and applications to sensor networks. IEEE Wireless Communications, 20(4), 140-145.